# Module 3 Moores Law to Predict Discussion

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Mathematics

MAT 140

Southern New Hampshire University

MAT

### Description

Below are two students discussion posts. Please provide a response for each student based on the discussion requirement below. I do not need the initial post, this is already completed, I just need the two responses.

For your response posts, you must do the following:

- Comment on your classmates’ analyses and their answers. Compare and contrast your problem-solving approach to how your classmates solved the problem.
- Review the explanations given by your peers for their problem-solving strategies. Your comments may focus on the following:
- How did they describe steps to make their explanations clear?
- What additional details could they have included?
- What details did they include that you may not have?
- What changes would you make to your initial post?

- Reply to at least two different classmates outside of your own initial post thread.

- I have attached the initial post for you to use as reference.

**STUDENT ONE:**

From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Prediction = 4096000

I got this by multiplying 4000 by 2, ten times.

4000*2=8000

8000*2=16000

16000*2=32000

32000*2=64000

64000*2=128000

128000*2=256000

256000*2=512000

512000*2=1024000

1024000*2=2048000

2048000*2=4096000

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

I started with 10,000,000,000 and got 4.096E13 transistors by 2040. I used the same strategy listed above to get this number.

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? This number is unbelievable because it would imply that the transistors would go beyond the 500nm wavelength of light necessary for lithography. So, it’s more of a technical reason why it’s unbelievable.

**STUDENT TWO:**

Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

The formula for Moore’s Law: Pn = Po * 2^n

Known variables plugged in: Pn = 4000 * 2^10

Prediction = 4096000

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

The formula for Moore’s Law: Pn = Po x 2^n

Rough estimate of transistors per IC in 2018: 10,000,000,000

Variable n = (2040-2018)/2 = 11

Known variables plugged in: Pn = 10,000,000,000 * 2^11

Prediction = 20,480,000,000,000

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not?

I do not think my prediction in part b is believable, due to how small the circuits being built would need to be in order for this to be possible. I believe Moore’s law will be true for a while, and then it will slowly taper off to be non-applicable by 2040.